2024年4月份，我们可以下一个特别肯定的结论了：传统猎头公司正式进入“加速死亡”时间阶段，传统猎头公司如果还保持现有的经营模式的话，90%以上的传统猎头公司会在2026年之前倒闭或者处于“勉强生存”的状态。导致传统猎企2024-2026年会大规模倒闭或者生存困难的根本原因有3个原因1：经济进入缓慢增长期，人才供需关系发生根本性变现。其实很多人都没有意识到，现在的以基层+中层为核心的猎头行业根本就是在“空中楼阁”中搭建的，只是中国经济发展奇迹带来的附属产物，根据一般性经济规律，猎头行业原本是不应该达到1150亿的规模的（2019年猎头行业市场规模，而同期整个SaaS行业规模才920亿），中国经济再也不可能回到过去的年均7%-12%的高速发展期了，中国经济进入缓慢增长期，导致各行各业的人才供需关系发生根本性变化，企业对于基层+中层岗位使用猎头招聘的需求不再变得紧迫甚至是可有可无。猎头行业原有的大部分市场原本就应该是内荐、RPO、内部招聘、招聘BPO的。2024-2026年，猎头行业大部分市场会重新回归内荐、RPO、内部招聘、招聘BPO。

In April 2024, we can draw a particularly definite conclusion: traditional headhunting companies have officially entered the stage of "accelerated death". If traditional headhunting companies continue to maintain their existing business models, more than 90% of them will go bankrupt or be in a "barely surviving" state before 2026. There are three fundamental reasons for the large-scale bankruptcy or survival difficulties of traditional hunting enterprises in 2024-2026: 1. The economy has entered a period of slow growth, and the fundamental realization of talent supply and demand has occurred. In fact, many people do not realize that the current headhunting industry, which is centered around grassroots and middle-level positions, is simply built in a "castle in the air". It is just a subsidiary product of China's economic development miracle. According to general economic laws, the headhunting industry should not have reached a scale of 115 billion yuan (the headhunting industry market size in 2019 was only 92 billion yuan, while the entire SaaS industry size was only 92 billion yuan during the same period). The Chinese economy can no longer return to the high-speed development period of 7% -12% per year in the past. The Chinese economy has entered a slow growth period, which has led to fundamental changes in the supply and demand relationship of talents in various industries. The demand for headhunting recruitment for grassroots and middle-level positions by enterprises has become less urgent or even optional. The majority of the headhunting industry's original market should have been for internal referrals, RPOs, internal recruitment, and hiring BPOs. From 2024 to 2026, most of the headhunting industry's markets will return to internal referrals, RPOs, internal recruitment, and hiring BPOs.

原因2：基金的去美元化+LP政府化是压垮猎头行业的最后一根稻草。基金的去美元化+LP政府化，加剧了这种困难，因为过去无数的热门行业并不是真的需要那么多人才，而是美元资金强势进入后，导致短期内人才需求失衡，短期内人才失衡，企业对猎头的需求会加剧，猎头行业最喜欢短期内失衡的行业，因为这意味着市场进入抢人大战，大部分人才招聘都是由猎头来完成的。基金的去美元化以及美股IPO上市变得不安全后，整个VC投资圈处于遍野哀嚎的境地，过去曾经每1-2年就会出现一次的大投资热潮彻底成为了过去，遍数2012-2020年，美元资金鼎盛时期，在互联网、房地产、医药、半导体、金融科技、新能源、AI、消费电子等无数领域，猎头行业的鼎盛和美元化基金的投资热潮其实是息息相关的，投资热潮极大的刺激了企业使用猎头招聘的决心。现在，潮水退了，大概率再也回不到过去的鼎盛投资时期了，猎企的黄金岁月随之也消失了。

Reason 2: The de dollarization of funds and the politicization of LP are the last straw that crushes the headhunting industry. The de dollarization of funds and the politicization of LPs have exacerbated this difficulty, as countless popular industries in the past did not really need that much talent. Instead, the strong entry of US dollar funds has led to an imbalance in talent demand in the short term. In the short term, talent imbalance will intensify the demand for headhunters by enterprises. The headhunting industry prefers industries with short-term imbalances because it means that the market has entered a talent war, and most talent recruitment is completed by headhunters. After the de dollarization of funds and the listing of US stock IPO became unsafe, the whole VC investment circle was in a state of wailing. The big investment boom that used to occur every 1-2 years has completely become a thing of the past. From 2012 to 2020, during the peak period of US dollar funds, in countless fields such as the Internet, real estate, medicine, semiconductor, financial technology, new energy, AI, consumer electronics, the peak of headhunting industry and the investment boom of dollarized funds are actually closely related, and the investment boom has greatly stimulated the determination of enterprises to use headhunting for recruitment. Now that the tide has receded, it is highly likely that we will never return to the peak investment period of the past, and the golden years of hunting enterprises have also disappeared.

原因3：“降本增效”成为悬在HR招聘人员头上的利剑，也是传统猎企倒闭潮的开始。2024年，如果问哪一个领域的猎头最难，一定是针对HR领域做单的猎头，因为压根就没什么需求，在企业内部，HR招聘人员自己都面临着随时可能下岗的问题，2024-2026年，HR招聘人员想要不失业，就需要在“降本增效”上做文章。在大环境不好时，“增效”是很难的，绝大部分高管在经济大环境不好时，都做不到“增效”，更不要说辅助部门的HR，大部分HR招聘人员不具备“增效”的能力，因此“降本”就成为了大部分HR招聘人员自保的首选，而降本最重要的手段有3个手段一：所有岗位招聘，先自己内部招聘一篇，实在不行再找猎头合作，减少成本手段二：原本20%的费率，降低到12%-16%，根据目前猎企的经营模式，很少有猎企在费率12%-14%时依然能够保持盈利的，更不要说和内荐、RPO一个价格。手段三：原本走猎头渠道的订单，现在走内荐、RPO、内部招聘、驻场招聘、招聘BPO外包，这5种招聘形式能够大幅度降低成本，最高成本甚至可以降低80%以上。HR招聘人员的“降本”措施能够帮助HR招聘人员在企业证明自己的价值，不失业，但是却会成为猎头公司倒闭潮的开始，上面三个“降本”的措施，无论哪一个，传统猎头公司的成本结构和经营模式都很难玩转。2024年，不管是猎企老板，还是猎头顾问都需要提前为自己筹划未来猎头行业未来的猎企经营模式主要是4种，这四种经营模式的价值从低到高排序如下，以★表示价值的高低经营模式1：成为小而美的专业猎头公司（★）小而美的专业猎头公司，需要具备以下条件1：公司规模不能超过15人2：猎企老板自己本人需要特别专业，对猎头行业从行研、BD、订单、信息、寻访、沟通的各个环节都要很精通，能够快速培育新人成长或者自己做单能力超强。3：能够啃骨头单，能够通过赋能型mapping寻访其他猎企寻访不到的稀缺性人才。4：公司起码有1名资深行业专家，能够大幅度提升其他猎头顾问的交付成功率，这名资深行业专家是老板本人或者PM级别的资深合伙人现有的猎企，只有这种“小而美”的猎企能够存活下来，其他的所有猎企我都不看好，包括纯粹电话营销型猎企、业务集中在中低端市场的中大型猎企、所谓的“阿米巴”模式猎企（换汤不换药）、所谓的互联网+猎企（现有的互联网+猎企反而加剧了猎头行业的崩溃）。小而美公司最大的问题是，既然猎企老板有能力经营一家小而美的猎企，干什么不能成功？为什么非要坚持去做一家吃力不讨好的“小而美”猎企呢？很累，收益很一般。

Reason 3: "Cost reduction and efficiency improvement" has become a sharp sword hanging over HR recruitment personnel, and it is also the beginning of the wave of traditional hunting enterprises going bankrupt. In 2024, if you ask which field of headhunting is the most difficult, it must be headhunters who specialize in the HR field, because there is no demand at all. Within the company, HR recruiters themselves are facing the problem of being laid off at any time. From 2024 to 2026, if HR recruiters want to avoid unemployment, they need to focus on "reducing costs and increasing efficiency". When the overall environment is not good, it is difficult to "increase efficiency". The vast majority of executives cannot achieve "increase efficiency" when the economic environment is not good, let alone HR in auxiliary departments. Most HR recruiters do not have the ability to "increase efficiency". Therefore, "cost reduction" has become the first choice for most HR recruiters to protect themselves. The three most important means of cost reduction are: first, recruit internally for all positions, and if it is not feasible, then seek headhunting cooperation to reduce costs. Second, reduce the original 20% rate to 12% -16%. According to the current operating model of hunting enterprises, few hunting enterprises can still maintain profitability when the rate is 12% -14%, let alone internal recommendations and RP. O a price. Method 3: Orders that were originally placed through headhunting channels are now being recruited through internal referrals, RPO, internal recruitment, on-site recruitment, and BPO outsourcing. These five forms of recruitment can significantly reduce costs, with the highest cost even being reduced by over 80%. The "cost reduction" measures taken by HR recruiters can help them prove their value in the enterprise and avoid unemployment, but they can also become the beginning of a wave of headhunting companies going bankrupt. Regardless of which of the three "cost reduction" measures mentioned above, the cost structure and business model of traditional headhunting companies are difficult to handle. In 2024, both headhunting bosses and headhunting consultants need to plan ahead for their future business models in the headhunting industry. There are mainly four types of business models, ranked from low to high in value, represented by ★. Business model 1: Become a small and beautiful professional headhunting company (★). A small and beautiful professional headhunting company needs to meet the following conditions: 1. The company size cannot exceed 15 people. 2. The headhunting boss himself needs to be particularly professional and proficient in all aspects of the headhunting industry, including research, business development, orders, information, search, and communication. He should be able to quickly cultivate new talents for growth or have strong ability to make orders on his own. 3: Being able to tackle difficult tasks and explore scarce talents that other hunting companies cannot find through empowering mapping. 4: The company has at least one senior industry expert who can significantly improve the delivery success rate of other headhunting consultants. This senior industry expert is the existing hunting enterprise of the boss himself or the PM level senior partner. Only this "small and beautiful" hunting enterprise can survive, but I don't like all the other hunting enterprises, including pure telemarketing hunting enterprises, medium and large hunting enterprises whose businesses are concentrated in the middle and low end markets, the so-called "Amiba" model hunting enterprises (change the soup without changing the dressing), and the so-called Internet plus hunting enterprises (the existing Internet plus hunting enterprises have exacerbated the collapse of the headhunting industry). The biggest problem with a small and beautiful company is that since the owner of the hunting enterprise has the ability to run a small and beautiful hunting enterprise, why can't it succeed? Why insist on being a "small but beautiful" hunting enterprise that is difficult to please? Very tired, with average returns.

经营模式2：转型泛招聘解决方案的新型猎企（★）2024年，企业对猎头公司的需求有且只有3种价值需求价值需求1：能够啃骨头单、能够寻访到其他猎企无法寻访到的稀缺性+核心人才，这个价值对应的是“小而美”公司的能力。价值需求2：低成本，2024年企业的主旋律是“降本增效”，企业放弃传统猎头公司的20%左右费用率，转而寻求成本更低的内荐、RPO、内部招聘、驻场招聘、招聘BPO外包，已经成为大势所趋。对应企业的价值需求，有2种新型猎企经营模式，分别是猎企转型泛招聘解决方案的新型招聘BPO公司，帮助客户大幅度降低成本猎头顾问转型行业人才圈层超级个体（经营模式4）价值需求3：基于人才驱动经营的顶级、高级人才招聘

Business Model 2: New Hunting Enterprises Transforming into Comprehensive Recruitment Solutions (★) In 2024, there are only three value requirements for headhunting companies. Value requirement 1: the ability to tackle difficult tasks and find scarce and core talents that other hunting enterprises cannot find. This value corresponds to the ability of "small and beautiful" companies. Value Requirement 2: Low cost. The main theme for enterprises in 2024 is "cost reduction and efficiency improvement". Enterprises are abandoning the traditional headhunting company's expense ratio of around 20% and seeking lower cost internal referrals, RPOs, internal recruitment, on-site recruitment, and BPO outsourcing. This has become a trend. There are two new business models for hunting enterprises that correspond to their value needs, namely the new recruitment BPO company that transforms hunting enterprises into pan recruitment solutions, helping clients significantly reduce costs. Headhunting consultants transform into super individuals in the industry talent circle (business model 4). Value demand 3: Top and senior talent recruitment based on talent driven management

经营模式3：转型高端猎头市场（★★★）2024-2026年，预计整个高端猎头市场大概有200亿以上的市场规模，猎头高端市场有下面几个特点1：进入门槛极高，猎头高端市场的高业绩逻辑和中低端市场的高业绩逻辑是完全不一样的，技能和顶层思维没有什么共通性，需要系统性的掌握高端市场的做单逻辑。2：利润率极高，具备高端市场猎头做单的能力，业绩起步300万+，具备高端人才圈层的，业绩起步600万+，因为门槛高，所以利润率也极高。3：一定要具备和董事长/总裁对话能力，可以是大型公司董事长/总裁，也可以是高潜创业公司的董事长/总经理，不具备该能力，业绩基本好不起来，也不建议进入高端猎头市场。后面会建一个猎头高端市场做单群，我会在群里免费发放一些PPT资料，免费的线下深度交流活动等，助力部分资深猎头顾问、想转型高端市场的猎企老板，期望2024-2026年能够尽可能的助力资深猎头顾问转型高端猎头市场。猎头高端市场做单群，大概5月份开始，可以加微信15371862559（猎头行业布道者）

Business Model 3: Transformation into the High end Headhunting Market (★★★) From 2024 to 2026, it is expected that the entire high-end headhunting market will have a market size of over 20 billion yuan. The high-end headhunting market has the following characteristics: 1. The entry threshold is extremely high, and the high performance logic of the high-end headhunting market is completely different from that of the mid to low end market. Skills and top-level thinking have little in common, and it is necessary to systematically master the order making logic of the high-end market. 2: The profit margin is extremely high, with the ability to handle high-end market headhunting orders, with a starting performance of over 3 million. For those with a high-end talent circle, the starting performance is over 6 million. Due to the high threshold, the profit margin is also extremely high. 3: It is necessary to have the ability to communicate with the chairman/president, which can be the chairman/president of a large company or the chairman/general manager of a high potential startup company. Without this ability, the performance will not be good, and it is not recommended to enter the high-end headhunting market. I will create a high-end headhunting market group in the future, where I will distribute some free PPT materials, free offline in-depth communication activities, etc., to assist some senior headhunting consultants and headhunting business owners who want to transform into the high-end market. I hope to help senior headhunting consultants transform into the high-end headhunting market as much as possible in 2024-2026. For the high-end headhunting market, starting from around May, you can add WeChat 15371862559 (Headhunter Industry Evangelist) as a single group

经营模式4：行业人才圈层超级个体（★★★★★）目前传统猎头的中低端市场，除了大概20%左右被“小而美”公司继承下来，80%的市场将在2024-2026年被新型猎头公司取代，新型猎头公司主要指的是转型泛招聘解决方案的新型猎企、行业人才圈层超级个体新型猎企，从对猎头顾问的价值而言，行业人才圈层超级个体是最有可能帮助猎头顾问、猎企老板实现财富自由的经营模式。行业人才圈层超级个体模式的优势如下1：一个猎头顾问等于一家10-100人的猎企，一个猎头顾问可以完成传统猎企的所有流程2：获取人才的成本极低，无限等于0，因此可以结合内荐、RPO、招聘BPO、猎头、高端人才服务等多种泛招聘解决方案，因为成本低，所以报价特别灵活。3：因为成本极低，所以可以快速、大量BD优质客户、特优质客户优势4：流量大，获取人才速度快，能够大量获取稀缺性人才5：变现方式多，多维度变现，包括8种不同等级的变现方式，大部分猎头起码可以做到四级变现，相比于猎头公司，泛猎头的收入可能只占总收入的三分之一，到三百分之一。一级变现：职业规划、深度面试辅导二级变现：职场通用技能培训、行业技能培训三级变现：内荐、RPO、招聘BPO、猎头、高端人才四级变现：行业专家freework，包括SOHO专家类、项目外包类五级变现：商业链接、资源整合变现六级变现：创业、融资、VC、FA七级变现：政府科创孵化八级变现：人才终身价值服务6：人才作为一种资源，可以一辈子积累，无需不断0-1，可以每一年收入在上一年基础上几何级增长

Business Model 4: Industry Talent Circle Super Individuals (★★★★★) Currently, in the mid to low end market of traditional headhunting, except for about 20% inherited by "small and beautiful" companies, 80% of the market will be replaced by new headhunting companies in 2024-2026. New headhunting companies mainly refer to new headhunting enterprises that transform into universal recruitment solutions, industry talent circle super individuals, and new headhunting enterprises. In terms of value to headhunting consultants, industry talent circle super individuals are the most likely business models to help headhunting consultants and headhunting enterprise owners achieve financial freedom. The advantages of the super individual model in the industry talent circle are as follows: 1. One headhunting consultant is equivalent to a hunting enterprise with 10-100 people, and one headhunting consultant can complete all the processes of traditional hunting enterprises. 2. The cost of acquiring talent is extremely low, infinite equals zero, so it can be combined with various general recruitment solutions such as internal recommendation, RPO, recruitment BPO, headhunting, and high-end talent services. Due to the low cost, the quotation is particularly flexible. 3: Due to its extremely low cost, it can quickly and efficiently acquire a large number of high-quality BD and ultra high quality clients. 4. It has the advantages of high traffic and fast talent acquisition, which enables the acquisition of scarce talents in large quantities. 5. There are multiple monetization methods, including 8 different levels of monetization, and most headhunters can achieve at least level 4 monetization. Compared to headhunting companies, the revenue of pan headhunters may only account for one-third to one-third of the total revenue. Level 1 monetization: career planning, in-depth interview coaching Level 2 monetization: general skills training in the workplace, industry skills training Level 3 monetization: internal recommendation, RPO, recruitment BPO, headhunting, high-end talent Level 4 monetization: industry experts freework, including SOHO experts and project outsourcing Level 5 monetization: commercial links, resource integration monetization Level 6 monetization: entrepreneurship, financing, VC, FA Level 7 monetization: government science and technology incubation Level 8 monetization: lifelong value service for talent Level 6: talent as a resource, can accumulate for a lifetime without the need for continuous 0-1, and can exponentially increase annual income on the basis of the previous year

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